About this project: After the USA was drawn into the "Group of death" (with Germany, Portgual, and Ghana), I wondered how many points it would take to get out of the group stage.
The way the group stage works is: four teams, each plays each other one time, wins are worth 3 points, draws are worth 1 point. The top two teams advance.
To simplify things I just assumed every game had an equal probability of drawing or either team winning. For tiebreakers, I assumed a uniform distribution of who gets to go on. So, without further adieu:
|# points||% to advance||% advance without tiebreaker|