Who really won the World Cup?
Mood: geeky
Posted on 2010-07-11 16:22:00
Tags: soccer math
Words: 579
Congrats to Spain, although the final game was not super impressive.
Anyway, before the World Cup, I bought an ESPN magazine guide. It included "measures of success" for all 32 teams, so I thought it would be fun to see who did the best relative to their predictions.
Key:
HH = Happy to be Here = 0 points
OG = Out of Group stage = 1 point
QF = QuarterFinal = 2 points
SF = SemiFinal = 3 points
F = Final = 4 points
W = Win it all = 5 points
(note that the score = 5 - log_2(# of teams left at that stage))
So, without further adieu: (mouseover flag for country name)
Group | Success | Actual | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() | E | SF | F | +1 |
![]() | A | QF | SF | +1 |
![]() | F | OG | QF | +1 |
![]() | E | HH | OG | +1 |
![]() | F | HH | OG | +1 |
![]() | H | W | W | 0 |
![]() | D | SF | SF | 0 |
![]() | D | QF | QF | 0 |
![]() | H | OG | OG | 0 |
![]() | B | OG | OG | 0 |
![]() | C | OG | OG | 0 |
![]() | B | HH | HH | 0 |
![]() | H | HH | HH | 0 |
![]() | F | HH | HH | 0 |
![]() | G | HH | HH | 0 |
![]() | C | HH | HH | 0 |
![]() | C | OG | HH | -1 |
![]() | E | OG | HH | -1 |
![]() | A | OG | HH | -1 |
![]() | D | OG | HH | -1 |
![]() | H | OG | HH | -1 |
![]() | C | SF | OG | -2 |
![]() | A | SF | OG | -2 |
![]() | G | SF | OG | -2 |
![]() | D | QF | HH | -2 |
![]() | E | QF | HH | -2 |
![]() | A | QF | HH | -2 |
![]() | B | QF | HH | -2 |
![]() | B | W | QF | -3 |
![]() | G | W | QF | -3 |
![]() | F | SF | HH | -3 |
![]() | G | SF | HH | -3 |
Group | Total success | Total actual | Difference |
---|---|---|---|
E | 6 | 5 | -1 |
F | 4 | 3 | -1 |
D | 8 | 6 | -2 |
H | 7 | 5 | -2 |
C | 5 | 2 | -3 |
A | 8 | 4 | -4 |
B | 8 | 3 | -5 |
G | 11 | 3 | -8 |
Total | 57 | 31 | -26 |
Continent | # of teams | Total success (avg) | Total actual (avg) | Difference (avg) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Asia/Australia | 5 | 3 (0.60) | 2 (0.40) | -1 (-0.20) |
North America | 3 | 4 (1.33) | 2 (0.67) | -2 (-0.67) |
Europe | 13 | 25 (1.92) | 15 (1.15) | -10 (-0.77) |
South America | 5 | 14 (2.80) | 10 (2.00) | -4 (-0.80) |
Africa | 6 | 11 (1.83) | 2 (0.33) | -9 (-0.81) |
This backup was done by LJBackup.