Election Predictions!
Mood: nervous
Posted on 2008-11-03 09:43:00
Tags: election
Words: 168

Here are mine: feel free to post yours here!

- President: Obama wins Kerry states + IA NM CO VA NV OH for a total of 311-227 electoral votes. (here's a decent calculator to play with) This is a somewhat conservative estimate and I hope he breaks 330 EVs or so so it's not that close.
- Senate: Dems win new seats in VA NM CO AK NH OR NC for a total of 58. The GA race goes to a hotly-contested runoff.
- House: Um, I dunno, Dems gain 25 seats.
- California's Prop 8 fails but it's very very close.

Mostly just guessing on these with a slight pessimistic edge.

An interesting video about voting dirty tricks from the Obama campaign, although it's weak on actual advice.

A reminder: exit polls will be leaked tomorrow during the day. They will be partial numbers and very unreliable (they showed Kerry winning in 2004). I don't think I'm gonna be able to stop myself from looking at them (numbers!!) but they're pretty meaningless.

5 comments

Comment from wildrice13:
2008-11-03T15:14:12+00:00
Before I looked at your details on the presidential, I went and plugged in my own estimate. Turns out, our predictions are the exact same! Though I am with you in hoping it's actually more in favor of Obama--particularly, a Florida flip to Obama, and slightly less exciting but still interesting, a North Carolina flip.

I also think, hope, and pray Prop 8 will fail in CA, but I too believe it will be close.

Comment from gregstoll:
2008-11-03T15:16:18+00:00
Neat! Yeah, NC and FL are the most likely "next states", although IN is also possible...

Comment from medryn:
2008-11-03T18:13:45+00:00
You'll be happy to know that Carol and I switched our registration to CA and already mailed in two no votes on 8. :-)

Comment from djedi:
2008-11-04T12:34:20+00:00
I've seen a fair bit of support from people and even though it doesn't directly affect me personally, I'm really touched by it. P. Clinton came out against 8; the Daily Show did a very supportive segment on it, etc.

Comment from gregstoll:
2008-11-04T12:37:55+00:00
Yay, thanks a lot :-)

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